Wednesday, December 31, 2008

Crystal Balls

Crystal ball At this time of year wise pundits traditionally look back at the year just ending. Not being known for my wisdom, I'll look ahead at 2009. My prediction is that there will be good things and bad things. Some of the bad things will be:
  • Continued contraction of free services, possibly mitigated by more uptake of the freemium model - as exemplified recently by Wikispaces. It remains to be seen what this portends for the uptake of Web2.0 services in education as the tension between the cost savings of outsourcing and paranoia about service availability plays out.
  • Google has won - will it take up the slack when other services disappear or start charging? Big G will enter into more federations with other services - one of which will be Twitter (involving AdSense initially).
  • Yahoo, I don't care about, except as a counterbalance to keep Google honest, but I do care about Flickr and delicious. And I'm worried that the implosion of Yahoo (87% probability in 2009) will damage these services.
And the good news?
I would not say that the future is necessarily less predictable than the past. I think the past was not predictable when it started.
Donald Rumsfeld

That said, I'm confident that the advance of open access publishing and open science will continue in 2009. Sadly, I'm equally confident that there will not be a scientific publishing revolution next year and that there is a long hard road ahead...
It's also a given that Twitter Will Go Mainstream In 2009. How will you know when this happens? Your organization posts Twitter Guidelines with Do’s & Don’ts on the corporate intranet.